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SPECIAL REPORT
NUMBER OF LISTINGS BY STATUS FOR THE LAST TWO YEARS
Active Sold
Demand – Under Contract
We can anticipate future sales by looking at
homes under contract. We started March 2018
with 691 listings under contract, which is up 16%
from the 595 of March 1st, 2017. This is a similar
increase to last month and suggests continued
sales growth during March and April. Most
price ranges saw good increases compared
to last year, though homes under $1 million are
seeing lower percentage increases, perhaps
because of the diminishing supply. Normal
sales comprise 97% of luxury homes in escrow,
up from 96% last year.
Sales Pricing
Due to relatively low volumes and a wide
range of price points, the Northeast Valley
luxury market can display a lot of volatility if
measured on a monthly basis. We therefore
prefer to measure over a longer period in order
to identify trends more accurately. Since the
market low of $219 in 1Q 2012 we have seen
the twelve-month average move upwards to
around $273 per sq. ft. which is an increase
of 25%. Luxury home pricing first peaked in
August 2015 when the twelve-month average
price per sq. ft. hit $269 and finally exceeded
that level four months ago. The twelve-month
average currently stands at $273, up 2% from
$267 in February 2017. The six-month average
climbed to $276, up from $271 in February 2017
and the three-month average reached $285,
up from $272 in February 2017. Overall luxury
pricing has established a rising trend again,
having moved sideways between 2015 and
2017.
Under Contract Pricing
We have seen a decent rise in sales pricing
over the past four months. Under contract
pricing stands at an average of $274 per sq.
ft. as of March 1st, up from $252 at the start of
March last year. This is also higher than the $269
we were seeing last month and suggests that
sales price growth is likely to continue over the
near term. The average under contract price for
normal listings is $275 per sq. ft. The average for
(the very few) lender owned homes is $186 per
sq. ft and short sales average $220 per sq. ft.
Paradise Valley
400
300
200
100
0
May-16
Jun -16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
May-17
Jun -17
Mar-17
Apr-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Scottsdale
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
May-16
Jun -16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
May-17
Jun -17
Mar-17
Apr-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
May-16
Jun -16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
May-17
Jun -17
Mar-17
Apr-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Biltmore
150
100
50
0
May-16
Jun -16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
May-17
Jun -17
Mar-17
Apr-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Arcadia
150
100
50
0
Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18