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SPECIAL REPORT
NUMBER OF LISTINGS BY STATUS FOR THE LAST TWO YEARS
Active Sold
Demand - Sales
November 2018 gave us 349 closed transactions
though ARMLS. This is down 6% from November
2017, when we saw 370. It confirms the weakness
we saw in the under-contract listing count last
month. Not all price ranges saw an annual decrease
compared with November 2017. The range
between $600,000 and $1 million and between
$1.5 million to $2 million were up, the latter up
26%. However, homes over $3 million dropped
from 14 to 8, while those between $500,000 and
$600,000 fell from 95 to 62.
Demand – Under Contract
WeWe can anticipate future sales by looking at
homes under contract. We started December
2018 with 508 listings under contract, which is
down 8% from the 550 of December 1st, 2017.
This suggests that year over year sales growth
is likely to be weaker in December and January.
The weakness is concentrated in the low end from
$500,000 to $1 million and in the high end above
$2 million. The mid-range from £1 million to 42
million shows annual growth of 12% from 124 to
139. Normal sales comprise 96% of luxury homes
in escrow, down from 97% last year.
Sales Pricing
Due to relatively low volumes and a wide range
of price points, the Northeast Valley luxury market
can display a lot of volatility if measured on a
monthly basis. We therefore prefer to measure
over a longer period in order to identify trends
more accurately. Since the market low of $219 in
1Q 2012 we have seen the twelve-month average
move upwards to $281 per sq. ft. which is an
increase of 28%. Luxury home pricing first peaked
in August 2015 when the twelve-month average
price per sq. ft. hit $269 and finally exceeded
that level eleven months ago. The twelve-month
average currently stands at $281, up 4% from
$269 in November 2017. The six-month average
has climbed to $277, up from $266 in November
2017 and the three-month average stands at $283,
up from $267 in November 2017.
Overall luxury pricing has established a rising price
trend again over the last eleven months, having
moved sideways between 2015 and 2017.
Under Contract Pricing
We have seen a rise in sales pricing over the past
twelve months, but under contract pricing is showing
little movement over the past month, so we expect
a correspondingly small movement in sales pricing
next month.
The average under contract price for normal listings
is $284 per sq. ft. The average for (the very few)
lender owned homes is $216 per sq. ft and short
sales average $218 per sq. ft.
Paradise Valley
400
300
200
100
0
Jul-18
Aug-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
May-17
Jun -17
Mar-17
Apr-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
May-18
Jun -18
Mar-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Aug-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
May-17
Jun -17
Mar-17
Apr-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Arcadia
150
100
50
0
Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
May-18
Jun -18
Mar-18
Apr-18
Scottsdale
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Jul-18
Aug-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
May-17
Jun -17
Mar-17
Apr-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
May-18
Jun -18
Mar-18
Apr-18
Nov-18
Jul-18
Aug-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
May-17
Jun -17
Mar-17
Apr-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
May-18
Jun -18
Mar-18
Apr-18
Nov-18
Biltmore
150
100
50
0
Oct-18 Oct-18