31
SPECIAL REPORT
NUMBER OF LISTINGS BY STATUS FOR THE LAST TWO YEARS
Active Sold
Demand – Under Contract
We can anticipate future sales by looking at
homes under contract. The number of listings
under contract was 511 as of December 1st,
which is up 21% from the 424 of December
1st, 2016. This is a slightly lower percentage
than last month but still suggests strong sales
during December. All price ranges saw good
increases, with an increase from eight to
thirteen for homes over $3 million being the
highest percentage increase and $1.5 million
to $2 million being just behind with a jump from
21 to 33. Normal sales comprise 97% of luxury
homes in escrow, up from 95% last year.
Sales Pricing
Due to relatively low volumes and a wide
range of price points, the Northeast Valley
luxury market can display a lot of volatility if
measured on a monthly basis. We therefore
prefer to measure over a longer period in order
to identify trends more accurately. Since the
market low of $219 in 1Q 2012 we have seen
the twelve-month average move upwards to
around $270 per sq. ft. which is an increase
of 23%. Luxury home pricing first peaked in
August 2015 when the twelve-month average
price per sq. ft. hit $269 and finally exceeded
that level two months ago. The twelve-month
average currently stands at $270, up less
than 1% from $268 in November 2016. The sixmonth
average edged up to $266, up 1% from
$263 in November 2016 and the three-month
average reached $267, down $3 from $270 in
November 2016. Despite strong sales, overall
luxury sales pricing has remained almost flat
over the last two years in the Northeast Valley.
Under Contract Pricing
The pricing for homes under contract was at a
low point of $165 per sq. ft. in September 2011.
Up to the end of March 2014 it was advancing
quickly and reached a peak of $257. Until last
month it had made no consistent moves in
either direction since then. However, it finally
made a new high on November 1st and as
of December 1st, 2017, the average stands
at $267, the same as last month. This suggests
that sales prices might make a little positive
progress in the next couple of months. The
average under contract price for normal
listings is $269 per sq. ft. The average for (the
very few) lender owned homes is $221 per sq.
ft and short sales average $219 per sq. ft.
Paradise Valley
400
300
200
100
0
Dec-15
Jan-16
May-16
Jun -16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
May-17
Jun -17
Mar-17
Apr-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Scottsdale
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Dec-15
Jan-16
May-16
Jun -16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
May-17
Jun -17
Mar-17
Apr-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-15
Jan-16
May-16
Jun -16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
May-17
Jun -17
Mar-17
Apr-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Biltmore
150
100
50
0
Dec-15
Jan-16
May-16
Jun -16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
May-17
Jun -17
Mar-17
Apr-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Arcadia
150
100
50
0