SPECIAL REPORT NUMBER OF LISTINGS BY STATUS FOR THE LAST TWO YEARS Active Sold Demand – Under Contract We can anticipate future sales by looking at homes under contract. The number of listings under contract was 425 as of December 1, which is an increase of 9% from December 1, 2015 and up 27% from last month. This is another positive sign and all ranges between $500,000 and $1.5 million are up compared with last year. However, home over $1.5 million are down 22%. Normal sales comprise 94% of luxury homes in escrow, up from 93% a year ago. Sales Pricing Due to relatively low volumes and a wide range of price points, the Northeast Valley luxury market can display a lot of volatility if measured on a monthly basis. We therefore prefer to measure over a longer period in order to identify trends more accurately. Since the market low of $219 in 1Q 2012 we have seen the 12 month average move upwards to around $268 per sq. ft. which is an increase of 22%. However luxury home pricing peaked in August 2015 and had been in a slump until last month. The strong showing in October was followed by another increase in pricing in November. The 12 month average pricing is $4 per sq. ft. higher than it was a year ago in November 2015. The six month moving average stands at $263, up from $257 in November last year. The 3 month average stands at $271, which is up $19 from November 2015. These increases are primarily due to the segment of the market that has been moving as opposed to actual appreciation in value. Values have remained relatively flat. Under Contract Pricing The pricing for homes under contract was at a low point of $165 per sq. ft. in September 2011. Up to the end of March 2014 it was advancing and reached a peak of $257. Between March 2014 and November 2016 it has made no consistent moves in either direction and as of December 1, the average still stands at $258, close to the same level as last month and 2.5 years ago. This suggests that sales prices will continue to move sideways in the near future. This implies that the more favorable average pricing that we saw in October and November was primarily due to a favorable change in mix away from the lower price segments, rather than a general improvement in pricing across the board. The average under contract price for normal listings is $264 per sq. ft. The average for (the very few) lender owned homes is $184 per sq. ft and short sales average $185 per sq. ft. Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 May-16 Jun -16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Sept-15 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 Paradise Valley 400 300 200 100 0 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 May-16 Jun -16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Sept-15 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Scottsdale 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 May-16 Jun -16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Sept-15 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Biltmore Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 May-16 Jun -16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Sept-15 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Arcadia 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
Danley Portfolio - Winter 2017
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