SPECIAL REPORT NUMBER OF LISTINGS BY STATUS FOR THE LAST TWO YEARS Active Sold Demand – Under Contract We can anticipate future sales by looking at homes under contract. The number of listings under contract was 449 as of October 1, which is up 12% from October 1, 2015. This is another positive sign and all ranges except $600,000 to $800,000 and $2 million to $3 million are higher than last year. Normal sales comprise 94% of luxury homes in escrow, up from 91% a year ago. Sales Pricing Due to relatively low volumes and a wide range of price points, the Northeast Valley luxury market can display a lot of volatility if measured on a monthly basis. We therefore prefer to measure over a longer period in order to identify trends more accurately. Over the 4.5 years since the market low of $219 in 1Q 2012 we have seen the 12 month average move upwards to around $265 per sq. ft. which is an increase of 21%. However luxury home pricing peaked in August 2015 and has been on a slow weakening trend since then. The 12 month average pricing is $2 per sq. ft. lower than it was a year ago in September 2015. The six month moving average stands at $261, down from $264 in September last year. The three month average stands at $258, which is up $5 from September 2015. Under Contract Pricing The pricing for homes under contract was at a low point of $165 per sq. ft. in September 2011. Up to the end of March 2014 it was advancing and reached a peak of $257. Between March 2014 and August 2016 it has made no consistent moves in either direction and as of October 1, the average stands at $257, the same level as last month and 2.5 years ago. This suggests that sales prices will continue to move sideways in the near future. The average under contract price for normal listings is $261 per sq. ft. The average for (the very few) lender owned homes is $264 per sq. ft and short sales average $188 per sq. ft. Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Mar-16 Apr -16 May-16 Jun-16 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 May-15 Aug-15 Jul-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Paradise Valley 400 300 200 100 0 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Mar-16 Apr -16 May-16 Jun-16 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 May-15 Aug-15 Jul-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Scottsdale 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Mar-16 Apr -16 May-16 Jun-16 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 May-15 Aug-15 Jul-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Biltmore Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Mar-16 Apr -16 May-16 Jun-16 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 May-15 Aug-15 Jul-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 150 100 50 0 Arcadia
Danley Portfolio - Fall 2016
To see the actual publication please follow the link above